A 'TWEENER' TO WIN IOWA CAUCUS AND DEFEAT OBAMA

6-27-11

The 6-18-11 Des Moines Register's Kathie Obradovich column cited the following 3 categories for Republican caucus candidates, that were defined by John Stineman, a Republican policy consultant.   

 As a result of Tea Party influence, Iowalive analysis projects the 2012 Iowa caucus winner to be a category tweener-- 40%, More Conservative/outsider and 60%, Idea or Leadership Republican.  The winds of change are blowing across Iowa. 

 Iowalive  projects the Iowa caucus winner to win the nomination and defeat Obama about 59% to 40%.  Anyone claiming to have better numbers is asked to provide them.  J

 3 CAUCUS CANDIDATE CATEGORIES

 Brand-name Republicans: These candidates were well-known, had either run before or were seen as "establishment" candidates. Most would be at home on anybody's short list of presidential contenders even outside the campaign season. For example, Romney and McCain were tagged as "brand-name Republicans" in 2008. George W. Bush was alone as the standard-bearing contender in 2000, and Bob Dole held that role in 1996.

 More conservative/outsider: This group includes the social-religious conservative class of candidate, such as Huckabee in 2008; Alan Keyes and Gary Bauer in 2000; Keyes and Pat Buchanan in 1996 and Pat Robertson in 1988. It also takes in libertarians like Ron Paul.

 Idea or leadership Republicans: Stineman describes this harder-to-define category as candidates who center their campaigns on new ideas or approaches, like Forbes' flat tax, or Jack Kemp's blurring of party lines on certain social issues. The group also includes candidates who were recognized as strong leaders but hadn't achieved brand-name status, such as former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.