PROBABILITY OF REPUBLICANS TROUNCING OBAMA IN 2010

A trouncing is a win by at least 10 percentage points.   Christie and any of the next 4 in the table would win by at least 17 percentage points, in the popular vote.  Huckabee will not change his mind. 

The probability of Obama winning re-election is now about 3%.

CHRISTIE WOULD MOST LIKELY TROUNCE OBAMA.
REPUBLICANS	% PROBABILITY WOULD TROUNCE OBAMA IN 2012
Rick Perry	76%
Chris Christie	72%
Herman Cain	37%
Sarah Palin	35%
Michele Bachmann	31%
Tim Pawlenty	30%
Newt Gingrich	26%
John Huntsman	15%
Rudy Giuliani	12%
Jon Huntsman	12%
Mitt Romney	10%
Rick Santorum	6%
David Petraeus	2%
Charlie Crist	2%
Jeb Bush	2%
Bobby Jindal	1%
Lindsey Graham	1%
Mike Huckabee	0%

Anyone claiming to have better numbers is asked to provide them.