IOWALIVE'S PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS ESTIMATES SHOW WHY IOWANS PREFER TRUMP & CRUZ

1-26-16

Greetings, Governor Branstad—

As the longest serving governor in Iowa and more, you have participated in many elections and made many election promises.   You likely stated some measureable results you promised to achieve.  Iowalive net workers looked for measurable results promised by the present crop of presidential candidates, other than cancelling past presidential executive orders.  None were  found.  As a result, a persistent void exists—that is herein filled by Iowalive net workers.   

The following tables are Iowalive analyst net worker’s measurable, estimated results expectations for presidential candidates, if they are elected.  Here is how it worked.  Each participant involved with constructing the table developed and presented numbers to the others and defended them as warranted, or changed them if indefensible.   After the give and take, the numbers for each candidate were summed and averaged and entered into the table immediately below.  

The farther below table shows the ranking of the estimated first term results expectations, for each candidate, in 10 categories, listed in approximate priority order from left to right.  The candidates’ overall benefit to Americans are ranked top to bottom.  It is left as an exercise for the student to sort and rank individual categories—for single issue voters.

Analyst net worker’s use of Iowalive’s proprietary algorithms and data base essentially consider all significant contributors to expected presidential accomplishments, and process them into numbers.

It is noteworthy the correlation coefficient of congressional gridlock, and overall benefit to Americans rank, is a moderately strong -.7.  This means the more gridlock, the less benefit to Americans. 

The numbers also show only Trump and Kasich will reduce the gridlock, but by only trivial amounts.   Congressional gridlock is controlled by congress, but it can be overcome with presidents having strong negotiating skills—such as have Trump and Cruz.  

The numbers clearly show why Trump and Cruz are leading in the polls.  Americans will benefit more with them in charge.  Voters expect these two candidates to produce better results for Americans, not just for some special interests.  

THE NUMBERS IN THE TABLES ALSO SHOW:

1.    Presidents don’t have as much influence on producing benefits to Americans as they would like voters to believe—EXCEPT for Trump.

a.    He will make a major impact in delivering benefits to Americans, and they must sense that, according to the polls!

2.    Rubio is most electable but produces the least benefits to Americans if elected

3.    Single issue voters will get much more than they expect—and they might not like it

4.    It is easy to measure benefits to Americans produced by each candidate, if elected

5.    The categories have few if any interdependencies

6.    Electability is based on conditions as of 1-26-16

a.    Clinton’s is surprisingly low

7.    Bush’s benefits to Americans, if elected, are much better than the polls show

8.    It’s obvious why democrats want to run against Rubio and Christy—they can’t lose

TRUMP AND CRUZ PROVIDE MOST BENEFITS TO AMERICANS IF ELECTED

 

 

TRUMP & CRUZ RANK 1 & 2 IN THE TABLE AND IN THE POLLS

 

THE BOTTOM LINE

Many caucusgoers will soon decide which candidate to choose.   Those who see the above tables will evaluate them and decide what to do.   Iowalive wishes them and the candidates well!!

Someone in the tables will likely be elected president.  After 4 years that person’s accomplishments can be measured and compared to those in the table--and Iowalive net workers will be praised or criticized.  But they won’t be paid as all of them are volunteers. 

Sincerely,

Iowalive    A growing network of volunteer citizens and professionals for improving Iowa