IOWA CORN CROP PRODUCTION FORECAST DOWN 56% FOR 2019

1-29-18

Greetings Legislators, Iowa Newspaper Association, Governor Reynolds and all—

Please forward this post to all Iowa newspapers and government department heads for their consideration.  Thank you very much.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Iowalive gradually entered the realm of preparing long range corn and soybean production forecasts from its successful long range rainfall and temperature growing season forecasts. Iowalive now expects dry weather conditions to cause 2019 corn and soybean total production to fall 56% and 24% respectively below 2017 levels. Once final 2018 crop production data is available, accuracy of Iowalive’s 2018  forecasts herein can be used to place the value of the low 2019 forecast into better perspective.

PURPOSE & ACCURACY OF IOWALIVE’S 2017 FORECAST

The purpose of Iowalive’s 2017 forecasts was to provide Iowa farmers et. al. with information to support better decisions and long range plans.  After seeing the accuracy of the herein crop production forecast chart in the next 2 years, they can decide if the forecasts were useful or trustworthy. 

The forecasts are not intended to compete with USDA, NASS or NWS as they have no comparable estimates or forecasts at this time.   It is possible those involved with preparing and/or utilizing Iowa state budgets, such as universities, schools and cities, might be interested in the forecasts as well.

For the past several years, Iowalive has made experimental long range rainfall and temperature forecasts with surprising accuracy.   Those forecasts evolved into longer range than usual USDA  corn and soybean production forecasts for the state of Iowa, as posted on website http://www.iowalive.net/junevsaugustforecasts2017.htm and for 9 IA districts posted http://www.iowalive.net/iacropyieldforecasts2017.htmThere was good correlation between Iowalive’s 2017 June and USDA’s August forecasts, which got even better for end of the year total production estimates USDA NASS released 1-12-2017, as shown in the following table. 

Farmers and others can decide the accuracy of Iowalive’s August, 9 district forecasts, based on their measured yields.  Iowalive has yet to compare Iowalive’s 9 district to USDA final  2017 production amounts, but expects to. 

Total  2017 USDA production estimates are also posted on website:  https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Iowa/Publications/Crop_Report/2018/IA_Crop_Production_Annual_01_18.pdf

USDA’s AND IOWALIVE’s TOTAL 2017 CORN AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT

Iowalive’s June 12 forecast was not updated during or after the 2017 growing  season.

USDA’s August corn forecast was increased from 2.46 to 2.61 in 1-12-11

USDA’s August soybean forecast was increased from 557 to 562 in 1-12-18

USDA’s forecasts were up dated in later months as well

Iowalive's June 2017 Corn Total Production Forecast Is Within 1.1% of USDA's Final 2017 Total Production  Estimate Reported  in January 2018.  Iowalive's June Soybean Forecast Is Within -4.1% of USDA's Final Estimate.   Source:  USDA and Iowalive  1-13-18

TOTAL IOWA CORN & SOYBEAN PRODUCTION IN 2017

FORECAST-ESTIMATE  BY AND DATE  MADE

**IOWALIVE CORN, Billion Bu 6/12/17

*USDA CORN,  Billion Bu 1/12/18

% Difference

**IOWALIVE SOYBEANS, Million Bu 6/12/17

*USDA SOYBEANS,  Million Bu 1/12/18

% Difference

2.64

2.61

1.1%

539

562

-4.1%

* USDA estimates are based on year ending actuals and estimates.

** Iowalive estimates are based on Iowalive's proprietary algorithms, database and other sources.

 

IOWALIVE’S 4 YEAR CROP PRODUCTION  FORECAST

The accuracy of Iowalive’s 2017 June forecast prompted a correction in the soybean estimating process and preparation of 4 year forecasts—with disturbing results as shown in the following chart.  Iowalive knows of no comparable charts.  Iowalive’s chart is offered herein with the belief it will be considered as a first of its kind chart that shows the path to the 2019 dry weather production forecast. If Iowalive’s 2018 forecast is as close to USDA’s 2018 final estimates as occurred in 2017, the 2019 forecast might be taken more seriously.  It is provided at no cost to anyone.

FORECAST SHOWS RESULTS OF EXPECTED DRY WEATHER ON IOWA’S CORN AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

Chart will not be updated.  It serves as a baseline for accuracy assessments. 

Viewers will decide on its value, as they do with other Iowalive charts & tables, such as in the REFERENCES below.

 

Iowalive estimates are based on National Weather Service and USDA data, Iowalive's proprietary algorithms, database and other sources.

It would cost at least $170,000 to have capable experts prepare a comparable chart

Anyone claiming to have better numbers than those in the above table and chart are asked to provide them.

REFERENCES

RECORD IA CORN AND NEAR RECORD SOYBEAN CROPS IN 2017

2017 CORN & SOYBEAN YIELD FORECASTS FOR 9 IA DISTRICTS

http://www.iowalive.net/

Sincerely,

Iowalive   A growing network of volunteer citizens and professionals for improving Iowa