3 OF IOWALIVE'S 9 DISTRICT GRAIN YIELD FORECASTS ARE UPDATED

8-12-17

Greetings, Selected Members of IA Legislature Agriculture Committees and all—

Iowalive’s first time venture into corn and soybean yield forecasting in 3 of 9 USDA districts is disappointing, when compared to expert 8-1-17 USDA forecasts in the table below.  Iowalive’s forecasts in red were updated, despite previous plans not to update, as the originals in 3  districts were over 13% different from USDA’s.  However, USDA’s monthly updates might bring the originally forecasted numbers closer together.  Iowalive intends to make reasonably accurate grain forecasts in January of a crop year.

Compared to Iowa K-12 school data, USDA data is a joy to behold.  With a onetime request, USDA automatically emails reports to requestors instantly while the department of education  makes folks revisit and  search websites to see if student test score data is finally posted. 

And educator’s following 12/29/2016 report, released in January 2017, contains test score  data for the 2014-15 and 2015-16 Biennium, which means it was released 6 months after school was out in June 2016, and 4 months after school started in August 2016.   It took at least 7 months to prepare and it cooks student Proficiency test scores as follows! 

Not mentioned In the report, educators deviously and secretly consider students as Proficient (Expert) when scoring at Iowa’s pathetic  40th National Percentile Rank student proficiency standard, the lowest standard in the Midwest and which is only equal to or better than the bottom 40% of all U. S. students!!  And Iowa educators look parents and students in the eye and claim students are Expert in reading, math and science!!   And they get away with it with annual pay increases approved by Iowa school boards and paid for by Iowa taxpayers.

EDUCATORS 12/29/2016 REPORT

12/29/2016

Student Achievement, Accountability and Professional Development Annual Report

In sharp contrast, USDA  data is timely and believable!!!  And USDA  provides estimates for future yield performance as in the following table!   The department of education would never think of forecasting future test scores to warn parents and to show expected test score improvement or diminishment outcomes!!

NORTH EAST, SOUTH CENTRAL AND  SOUTH EAST DISTRICT FORECASTS IN RED ARE UPDATED

IOWALIVE'S UPDATED TOTAL FORECASTED 2017 CORN AND  BEAN YIELDS ARE WITHIN  7% OF USDA's 8-1-2017 YIELD ESTIMATES.   Source:  USDA & Iowalive 8-12-17

USDA DISTRICT

CORN

USDA District

BEANS

Corn Yield Bu Per Acre

Corn Total  (Million  Bu)

Bean Yield Bu Per Acre

Bean Total  (Million Bu)

IOWALIVE 8-4-2017

USDA 8-1- 2017

% Difference

IOWALIVE 8-4-2017

USDA 8-1- 2017

% Difference

IOWALIVE 8-4-2017

USDA 8-1- 2017

% Difference

IOWALIVE 8-4-2017

USDA 8-1- 2017

% Difference

North West

198.3

184.0

7.8%

393,100

348,533

12.8%

NW

56.6

55.0

2.9%

86,700

85,555

1.3%

North Central

194.3

193.0

0.7%

387,400

365,121

6.1%

NC

54.6

57.5

-5.0%

65,800

71,560

-8.0%

North East

198.6

205.0

-3.1%

327,100

323,775

1.0%

NE

53.4

61.5

-13.2%

43,800

49,348

-11.2%

West Central

197.1

188.0

4.8%

391,700

374,162

4.7%

WC

55.7

57.0

-2.3%

82,700

88,608

-6.7%

Central

212.5

190.0

11.8%

409,300

363,793

12.5%

C

59.6

56.5

5.5%

75,600

78,956

-4.3%

East Central

201.6

203.0

-0.7%

296,400

272,465

8.8%

EC

58.8

61.0

-3.6%

58,000

58,890

-1.5%

South West

186.5

174.0

7.2%

184,300

185,187

-0.5%

SW

50.1

54.0

-7.2%

50,900

55,694

-8.6%

South Central

147.0

144.0

2.1%

87,200

78,911

10.5%

SC

41.6

43.5

-4.4%

25,400

26,376

-3.7%

South East

187.4

173.0

8.3%

155,300

150,853

2.9%

SE

56.0

53.0

5.7%

43,400

42,213

2.8%

State

191.7

188.0

2.0%

2,631,800

2,462,800

6.9%

State

56.1

56.0

0.2%

532,300

557,200

-4.5%

 

IOWA CROP YIELD DISTRICTS USED BY USDA

 

http://www.iowalive.net/

http://www.iowalive.net/iacropyieldforecasts2017.htm

Sincerely,

Iowalive     A growing network of volunteer citizens and professionals for improving Iowa