COMPARISON OF FINAL USDA & IOWALIVE 2017 CORN & SOYBEAN ESTIMATES

2-8-18

Update 2-9-18.    2018 9 District Yield Forecasts are posted on website:  http://www.iowalive.net/2018cornsoybeanforecasts.htm

Greetings, Selected Members of IA Legislature Agriculture Committees and all—

USDA’s 2017, final, 9  district  corn and soybean yield and production estimates are available and compared to Iowalive’s estimates herein.  Only two of 9 districts, highlighted in yellow, show significant differences.  The  reason for it is not known at this time, and it is not of substantial concern for the following reasons. 

 Iowalive prepares the forecasts for farmers to consider as they plan, produce and sell their crops  etc.  Comparisons with USDA forecasts are made to place Iowalive’s forecasts into perspective only.  They are not directly comparable as they were made at different times.  They are not intended as a check on the accuracy of USDA forecasts as USDA does not make comparable long range forecasts.  

Iowalive leaves it to others to decide which numbers to believe.

Iowalive’s overall long range, 4 year, state production forecasts are unique and are posted on http://www.iowalive.net/longrangeiacornforecast.htm .

9 IOWA USDA DISTRICTS

 

COMPARISON OF USDA AND IOWA FINAL 2017  9 DISTRICT CORN & SOYBEAN YIELD AND PRODUCTION  ESTIMATES

DISTRICTS HIGH LIGHTED IN YELLOW CONSISTENTLY HAVE MOST DIFFERENCES

CORN YIELD PER ACRE PER DISTRICT

It is estimated qualified experts would charge at least $450,000 to prepare the following tables, that Iowalive did at no charge. 

Iowalive's Forecasts are prepared with its proprietary algorithms and database etc. 

Anyone claiming to have better numbers is asked to provide them.

TABLE COMPARES IOWALIVE'S FINAL 2017  CORN YIELD ESTIMATES MADE IN AUGUST WITH USDA's FINAL NOVEMBER ESTIMATES. Source:  USDA & Iowalive 2-5-18

Iowalive's final Aug. total forecasted 2017 corn yield  per acre are within   -2.8%  of USDA's final Nov. 2017 yield estimates.   For comparison, USDA's Aug. final Aug. to Nov.  yields are within -4.8%.  South Central and South East Districts Were Difficult to Forecast. 

Estimated 2017 Corn Yield Bu Per Acre

IOWA USDA DISTRICT

USDA  NOV 2017

IOWALIVE FINAL AUG 2017

USDA  AUG  2017

% DIFFERENCE AUG IOWALIVE   VS. NOV USDA

% DIFFERENCE AUG  USDA VS NOV    USDA

North West

199.0

198.3

184.0

-0.4%

-8.2%

North Central

197.0

194.3

193.0

-1.4%

-2.1%

North East

213.0

198.6

205.0

-7.3%

-3.9%

West Central

198.0

197.1

188.0

-0.5%

-5.3%

Central

204.0

212.5

190.0

4.0%

-7.4%

East Central

207.0

201.6

203.0

-2.7%

-2.0%

South West

184.0

186.5

174.0

1.3%

-5.7%

South Central

163.0

185.5

144.0

12.1%

-13.2%

South East

166.0

187.4

173.0

11.4%

4.0%

State

197.0

191.7

188.0

-2.8%

-4.8%

Iowalive's Yield Estimates for South Central and South East Districts Are Consistently Higher Than USDA's. 

 

TOTAL CORN PRODUCTION PER DISTRICT

TABLE COMPARES IOWALIVE'S FINAL 2017  CORN PRODUCTION ESTIMATES MADE IN AUGUST WITH USDA's *FINAL NOVEMBER ESTIMATES. Source:  USDA & Iowalive 2-5-18

Iowalive's final Aug. total forecasted 2017 corn yield  per acre are within   -7%  of USDA's final Nov. 2017 yield estimates.   For comparison, USDA's Aug. final Aug. to Nov.  yields are within 7.3%.  South Central and South East Districts Were Difficult to Forecast. 

Estimated Total 2017 Corn Production Per District

IOWA USDA DISTRICT

USDA  NOV 2017 (1,000 BU)

IOWALIVE FINAL AUG 2017

USDA  AUG  2017 (1,000 BU)

% DIFFERENCE AUG IOWALIVE  FINAL  VS.  NOV USDA

% DIFFERENCE AUG  USDA VS NOV    USDA

North West

382,668

393,100

391,500

2.7%

2.3%

North Central

357,841

387,400

400,156

7.6%

10.6%

North East

337,372

393,400

339,758

14.2%

0.7%

West Central

381,406

391,700

418,735

2.6%

8.9%

Central

385,592

409,300

414,981

5.8%

7.1%

East Central

280,788

296,400

286,278

5.3%

1.9%

South West

187,633

184,300

206,341

-1.8%

9.1%

South Central

79,958

102,600

99,051

22.1%

19.3%

South East

148,042

173,800

183,700

14.8%

19.4%

**State

2,541,300

2,732,000

2,740,500

7.0%

7.3%

Iowalive's Yield Estimates for South Central and South East Districts Are Consistently Higher Than USDA's. 

 

SOYBEAN YIELD PER ACRE PER DISTRICT

TABLE COMPARES IOWALIVE'S FINAL 2017  SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES MADE IN AUGUST WITH USDA's FINAL NOVEMBER DISTRICT ESTIMATES. Source:  USDA & Iowalive 2-5-18

Iowalive's final Aug. total forecasted 2017 soybean yield  per acre are within   .2%  of USDA's final Nov. 2017 yield estimates.   For comparison, USDA's Aug. final Aug. to Nov.  yields are within 0%.  South Central and South East Districts Were Difficult to Forecast. 

Estimated 2017 Soybean Yield Bu Per Acre

IOWA USDA DISTRICT

USDA FINAL NOV 2017

IOWALIVE FINAL AUG 2017

USDA  AUG  2017

% DIFFERENCE AUG IOWALIVE  FINAL  VS. FINAL NOV USDA

% DIFFERENCE AUG  USDA VS FINAL NOV    USDA

North West

57.5

56.6

55.0

-1.6%

-4.5%

North Central

56.0

54.6

57.5

-2.6%

2.6%

North East

56.5

53.4

61.5

-5.8%

8.1%

West Central

57.5

55.7

57.0

-3.2%

-0.9%

Central

60.0

59.6

56.5

-0.7%

-6.2%

East Central

60.0

58.8

61.0

-2.0%

1.6%

South West

53.0

50.1

54.0

-5.8%

1.9%

South Central

46.5

56.1

43.5

17.1%

-6.9%

South East

48.0

56.0

53.0

14.3%

9.4%

State

56.0

56.1

56.0

0.2%

0.0%

Iowalive's Yield Estimates for South Central and South East Districts Are Consistently Higher Than USDA's. 

TOTAL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION PER DISTRICT

TABLE COMPARES IOWALIVE'S FINAL 2017  SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES MADE IN AUGUST WITH USDA's FINAL NOVEMBER DISTRICT ESTIMATES. Source:  USDA & Iowalive 2-5-18

Iowalive's final Aug. total forecasted 2017 soybean production is within   -3.4%  of USDA's final Nov. 2017 yield estimates.   For comparison, USDA's Aug. final Aug. to Nov.  totals are within 0%.  South Central and South East Districts Were Difficult to Forecast. 

Estimated 2017 Soybean Total  Production Per District

IOWA USDA DISTRICT

USDA FINAL NOV 2017 (1,000 BU)

IOWALIVE FINAL AUG 2017 (1,000 BU)

USDA  AUG  2017 (1,000 BU)

% DIFFERENCE AUG IOWALIVE  FINAL  VS. FINAL NOV USDA

% DIFFERENCE AUG  USDA VS FINAL NOV    USDA

North West

88,785

86,700

85,555

-2.4%

-3.8%

North Central

71,631

65,800

71,560

-8.9%

-0.1%

North East

45,579

43,800

49,348

-4.1%

7.6%

West Central

89,537

82,700

88,608

-8.3%

-1.0%

Central

84,430

75,600

78,956

-11.7%

-6.9%

East Central

58,188

58,000

58,890

-0.3%

1.2%

South West

53,699

50,900

55,694

-5.5%

3.6%

South Central

26,797

32,000

26,376

16.3%

-1.6%

South East

38,554

43,400

42,213

11.2%

8.7%

State

557,200

538,900

557,200

-3.4%

0.0%

Iowalive's Yield Estimates for South Central and South East Districts Are Consistently Higher Than USDA's. 

 

http://www.iowalive.net/ 

Sincerely,

Iowalive  A growing network of volunteer citizens and professionals for improving Iowa