CAR OWNERSHIP CAN'T COMPETE WITH AUTONOMOUS CARS!

5-30-17

Greetings, Senators Chuck Grassley, Joni Ernst, Iowa Newspaper Association & all—

Iowa Newspaper Association, please forward this post to all Iowa newspapers.  Thank you very much. 

The numbers herein are provided for comparison with yours, or those provided to you by experts and others, who claim to have better numbers. What you are about to read is likely the first of its kind. 

The automobile revolution is approaching and car ownership can’t  compete with autonomous cars driving themselves, starting rather quickly in about 2022.   Please be prepared for existing car companies to clamor for government subsidies and protections to bail them out from very smart, domestic and international, autonomous car competitors.   Don’t give in to them!!  Force them to compete in the market place.  And give no subsidies or protections to the autonomous car makers or autonomous car renters.  Remember the Solyndra scandal!!

However, the U. S. must respond to foreign governments subsidizing their own autonomous car makers!!    The stakes are very high!

At least 1.5 trillion of the  approximately 3.5 trillion annual total U. S. car passenger miles driven, are the prize for the U. S. autonomous car winners alone.   At a $.20 per mile rental fee, which equals $300 billion per year, you can see there is considerable money involved—compared to 17.55 million cars sold in the U. S. in 2016 for at least $440 billion.    But car manufacturing companies will be selling up to 50% fewer cars for about $220 billion total, and fighting for survival.  Ferocious rental car competition will also occur.   Ordinary passengers will be treated like royalty, rather than pigeons at the mercy of insurance  companies, car companies and political tax and spenders. 

The royalty treatment will end when a few companies gain control of the autonomous car market in about 2045.  And of course the very wealthy can pay a premium to get first priority on any autonomous car of their choice, as usual.  Money talks.  Nothing wrong with that—except for conflicts with emergencies, which will be worked out. 

The few companies that will eventually control the autonomous car market can raise rental fees by a penny per mile and increase revenues by $1.5 billion.  Todd Dorman and the Cedar Rapids Gazette editorial board will say it is just a penny, just as they called the 18% Iowa sales tax increase a penny increase, using a penny graphic as fake proof. 

 

The following chart shows what Iowalive net workers are talking about.  The difference between the  blue and yellow curves shows the money that is up for grabs.   About year 2050 the competition for passengers will become exceptionally intense.   Aging millennials will love it.  And autonomous car providers will offer cars for dual use, drivers’ option to take over driving as desired, such as in remote areas uncharted by GPS—or whatever.

THE CAR OWNERSHIP, AUTO INDUSTRY REVOLUTION IS AT HAND

 

But there is much more that is apt to happen prior to 2055. Dominance of the emerging auto industry is at stake.  It will be an international battle.  Governments will get involved, unfortunately!!  The probability of the U. S. auto industry winning dominance is about 70%.  Not good!!

1.    Smart car buyers will stop buying new cars about 2025 expecting used car values to fall below $2,000 by about 2040.

2.    Cheap used cars will lower ownership cost per mile to about $.20 which will compete with autonomous cars for about 5 years.

3.    Parking, speeding and running red light tickets will be reduced by at least 50%

a.    As will tickets for driving while under the influence

4.    Driver license exams and fees will be reduced by at least 45%

5.    Teen agers and younger can rent and ‘drive’ autonomous cars—rented with an adult’s credit card. 

a.    Parents won’t have to drive their kids, or wait for them, anywhere!!

6.    Accidents will be reduced by at least 60%, and 75% of those that happen will be caused by human drivers

7.    The need for traffic police and emergency medical accident care will be reduced by about 20%.

8.    Car insurance business will fall by at least 50%. 

9.    The number of cars needed will decline by at least 50%

10. The number of car dealers will decline by at least 50%

11. The number of gas stations will be reduced by at least 40%.

12. Gasoline for lawnmowers, snow blowers, boats and other pleasure vehicles will be at least 30% more remote.

a.    More gasoline will be stored in garages

13. Robots will become more like people—and people will become more like robots, programmed by least cost availability of necessities and conveniences.

a.    People will have timely visibility of the cost per mile traveled and will reduce unnecessary travel accordingly—saving on streets, roads, fuel and tires.

14. Seniors will be able to travel nearly anywhere in safety

15.  Meals on wheels will increase by at least 25%

16. Groceries on wheels  will increase by at least 35%

17. Parking lot space usage will decrease by at least 40%

18. Car ownership will decrease by at least 55%

19. Loyal brand car buyers will decline by at least 50%

20. 40% of car garages will be converted to living quarters—creating new jobs for carpenters, electricians and  plumbers

21. The total number of U. S. car related jobs will decrease by about 30%

22. The total amount spent on car related advertising in the U. S. will decrease  by about 30%

23. Prestige in car ownership will decline by at least 70%.

a.    Safety, function, comfort and cost will prevail

b.    Style will have little value for autonomous car renters

24. Behind the scenes, unethical, political lobbying by special interests will increase by at least 15%

a.    Corrupt media will not report it

b.    And if they did, only about 15% of those receiving the reports would believe them

c.     Fake news will have taken its toll on the media

Anyone claiming to have better numbers is asked to provide them. 

AUTONOMOUS CAR DEVELOPERS

The following table lists the autonomous car developers at this time and ranks their % probability of success in the future marketplace.  Four are expected to dominate.   

FOUR AUTONOMOUS CAR MAKERS COULD DOMINATE

FOUR COMPANIES LEAD AUTONOMOUS CAR DEVELOPMENT.  Source:  Iowalive  5-30-17

RANK

*AUTONOMOUS CAR DEVELOPERS

% PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS

1

 Microsoft Pursues Collaborative Strategy With Automakers

90%

2

Toyota Develops “Guardian Angel” Approach To Autonomy

85%

3

Waymo (Alphabet) Readying Fiat Chrysler Automobiles  For Public Trial In Arizona  (GOOGLE SPIN OFF)

85%

4

GM, Lyft Aim To Deploy Thousands Of Self-Driving Test Cars In 2018

80%

5

Samsung Enters The Driverless Race

70%

6

Honda Also Testing Autonomous Cars, Offers Semi-Autonomous Features On Civic

60%

7

Tesla Asserts New Autopilot Hardware Enables “Full Self-Driving”

60%

8

Didi Chuxing Hires Uber, Waymo Engineers For AI Lab

55%

9

Hyundai aims for affordable self-driving system

50%

10

Ford Tapping Private Markets For Self-Driving, AI Capabilities

45%

11

Nissan/Renault Promises ‘Significant Autonomous Functionality’ By 2020

45%

12

Yutong Has Successfully Tested Driverless Buses

45%

13

Continental AG Taking Incremental Approach

40%

14

Nvidia, Paccar Working On Autonomous Trucks

40%

15

Uber Program Bogged Down In Legal, Cultural Issues

40%

16

Magna Also Pursues LiDAR, Autonomous Tech

35%

17

DAF, Daimler, Iveco, MAN, Scania, and Volvo Complete Truck ‘Platooning’ Trip

30%

18

Jaguar Land Rover Wants To Introduce Assisted Driving But Keep Driving Fun

30%

19

Huawei Autonomous R&D Team Tops 200

25%

20

Volkswagen Pushes Autonomous Research As It Tries To Move Past Emissions Scandal

25%

21

Audi Creates Autonomous Driving Subsidiary

10%

22

Autoliv and Volvo Cars Establish Zenuity

10%

23

Baidu Plans Autonomous Car Spinoff, Mass Production

10%

24

BMW-Intel-Mobileye Alliance Forges Ahead; Intel Buys Mobileye

10%

25

Bosch, Mercedes Join Forces

10%

26

Delphi Also Partnering With BMW-Intel-Mobileye

10%

27

SoftBank Group’s SB Drive Venture Pushes Forward

10%

28

PSA Groupe Finds Startup Partner

10%

29

Tata Elixsi Showcases Valet System And Focuses On Autonomous Vehicle Security

10%

30

Valeo Shows Off Autonomous Driving Tech At CES 2017

10%

31

Apple Plays Catch-Up

1%

Numbers Were Derived With Proprietary Algorithms and Database.

Anyone Claiming to Have Better Numbers is Asked to Provide Them

 http://www.iowalive.net/

*Reference  https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/autonomous-driverless-vehicles-corporations-list/ 

Sincerely,

Iowalive   A growing network of volunteer citizens and professionals for improving Iowa